College Football Gambling Tips
The NFL is the most common starting point for football bettors. Many gamblers dream of making money on the game they enjoy watching every Sunday.
College football provides an opportunity to bet on a wide range of games, meaning bettors have way more options when it comes to pulling the trigger on a particular play. It also means that you can be much more selective in finding the ideal conditions you’re looking for in a bet. NCAA football is a powerhouse in the sports betting industry due to its massive fan base and the size of its 11 Division 1 conferences. There are plenty of betting opportunities during the regular season and bowl games, with enough matchups played each weekend to keep oddsmakers busy setting the lines.
Of course, the NFL is one of the toughest leagues to beat in all of sports betting.
Therefore, some gamblers turn to college football in hopes of having an easier route to profits.
Ncaa Football Betting Tips
Much like the NFL, college football isn’t easy to beat either, especially when considering the high-profile games. That said, you may wonder if NCAA football is truly an easier road toward making money.
I’m going to discuss some of the keys to winning with college football betting and if it’s ultimately possible to earn consistent profits.
High Liquidity = Sharper Lines
Many sportsbooks determine their odds based on the market. In other words, they increase or decrease odds when a specific side is drawing too much action.
Here’s an example:
- Arizona -12
- Hawaii +12
- $5,600 is bet on Arizona
- $9,100 is bet on Hawaii
- The new line changes
- Arizona -11
- Hawaii +11
College Basketball Gambling Tips
Contrary to popular belief, bookmakers don’t always aim to create perfect balance on each side. This goal is impossible in every market, especially the less liquid ones (e.g. table tennis, water polo).
They’re perfectly fine with an unbalanced line as long as they’re on the sharps’ (pros) side rather than against them.
However, bookmakers do try to keep the action nearly equal when they can. Such situations allow them to make guaranteed profits when the juice is factored in.
Sportsbooks have an easier time creating balanced action in a highly liquid market. The latter refers to a market that features lots of action.
The NFL is a perfect example of a highly liquid market, because most games draw countless bets each weekend.
Primetime college football games are another example. High-profile matchups like Ohio State vs. Penn State and Florida State vs. Clemson are very popular among gamblers.
You’re likely not looking to wager on Coastal Carolina every Saturday. Instead, you’re eyeing your favorite schools or at least the ones that are on TV the most.
Unfortunately, these are also the toughest lines to beat.
Sportsbooks shift odds on these matchups throughout the week depending upon how much money comes in on each side.
By the end of the week, they’ll have nearly balanced action and lines that don’t offer much value from a bettor’s perspective. That said, you’re running into a wall by continually wagering on the biggest college football games week in and week out.
The Softest Lines Are Found Outside of Power 5
Continuing on the last point, most college football bettors put their money on Power 5 matchups. These conferences include the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC.
You can find some value in these lines. This value is often featured in lesser Power 5 matchups, such as Oregon State vs. Utah. You can also get good prices when lines first come out and bookmakers don’t have perfect information.
Nevertheless, you want to look outside the big conferences when trying to find juicy bets.
Division 1A conferences, like the MAC and Sun Belt, don’t draw as much gambling action. Therefore, bookmakers don’t spend as much time crafting these lines.
I’m not saying that oddsmakers can’t still create sharp lines for non-Power 5 matchups. However, your chances of winning these bets are slightly better than when gambling on the popular schools.
Winning in College Football Isn’t Easy, but It’s Easier Than the NFL
The best thing about wagering on college football is that there are more games for bookmakers to cover. In fact, they have roughly four times as many contests to handicap in a given week.
Again, they spend the most time on high-profile games that’ll draw the most wagering action. The last thing bookmakers want to do is put out a soft line on Alabama vs. Auburn and get crushed by massive sharp bets.
You’ll find it just as difficult to beat high-profile college football games as you will the NFL. The real value comes from the less-heralded matchups.
I want to hammer home that smaller conference games can offer more value.
You can especially capitalize on these bets by becoming an expert on low-key conferences.
4 College Football Betting Tip to Help You Win More
I don’t want to make it sound like winning college football bets is a breeze. But you can certainly improve your odds of winning with the following tips.
1 – Act Quickly on Valuable Odds
The downside to the lower volume on less heralded college football games is that lines move much faster when large bets are made. Therefore, you must be quicker if you want to get value from a specific line.
Sharps can spot the very same value as you in low-profile games. They’ll likely jump on a great opportunity whenever they can. Assuming you’re not quick enough, the line will move before you can take advantage.
If you don’t have time to monitor lines all day, you can always choose a “squarebook.” These sportsbooks cater to less-educated bettors who are less likely to spot valuable lines. Squarebooks also don’t require you to be as quick to place wagers.
2 – Specialize in a Few Conferences
You might be tempted to place several bets across different conferences each Saturday. After all, college football offers a lot of tempting matches.
But if you want to win more often, then you should specialize in three or fewer conferences.
Specialization helps you avoid spreading your bets and knowledge too thin.
After all, you’re not going to develop in-depth knowledge of a half-dozen conferences within a single season. Even if you do develop this knowledge by the end of the year, many things will change going into the next season.
You don’t necessarily have to become a major fan of the Mountain West. But again, wagering on low-profile games is a great way to boost your winnings.
If you happen to be a die-hard ACC or Big Ten fan, then you can still put some money down on your favorite conference. However, you’ll have a tougher time making profits from your knowledge in these higher liquidity markets.
3 – Stats Mean Less
Stats are always helpful when betting on any type of sport. But numbers mean less in the NCAA than they do in the NFL.
The problem with college football is that it has far more changeover than the pros. Players only have a maximum of four years to play. Many athletes don’t start, or at least play a lot, until they become juniors or seniors.
You’ll still gain some value by going over stats in college football.
But you shouldn’t waste countless hours looking over statistics that will likely be very different the next season.
As a final point, college football competition has a lot more disparity than the NFL. The Oklahoma Sooners might face South Dakota, for example, as a tune-up before a big game against Texas.
Their players will probably pile up big numbers against South Dakota. But how useful are these numbers when looking at the course of a season? Competition disparity is just one more reason why stats aren’t everything in the college game.
4 – Don’t Bet on Road Favorites
Sometimes, you’ll notice that traditional college powerhouses aren’t favored by much against less talented teams on the road. Therefore, you may be tempted to bet on the higher regarded team in hopes of scoring an easy win.
However, road favorites make for tricky bets. College students aren’t quite as poised on the road as their professional counterparts.
You may think that LSU only being a -10 favorite at Kentucky is an outcry. However, Vegas bookmakers are very good at their jobs and undervalue road favorites for a reason.
Conclusion
If you’re interested in gambling on football, then the college game is your best bet. After all, it features a large schedule each week along with many low-profile matchups.
These two factors combine to give bookmakers fits when they’re determining lines. They may nail a primetime game between Florida and Georgia, but release a weak line for East Carolina and Temple.
Of course, you can’t just blindly bet on overlooked matchups and expect to win.
Instead, you need to build up your college football betting skills just like you would for NFL gambling.
A good starting point is to develop in-depth knowledge of a conference. You should especially target the non-Power 5 leagues, which don’t draw as much attention or betting action.
You should also dedicate time toward scouring opening lines. You’ll often find more value when lines are first released and bookmakers are getting a read on the betting action.
Stats don’t mean as much in NCAA football as they do in the NFL thanks to the high player turnover. Nevertheless, numbers should also play a role in your betting strategy.
You may not become an instant success in college football betting. But you can eventually be a winner by becoming extremely knowledgeable about teams and conferences outside Power 5.
When it comes to betting on football, it would seem like the NFL is the place to make your money. With less teams, more consistent players year-in and year-out, and less change in gameplay, it would stand to reason that the pros are the way to go.
Although these things are all true, each year, sportsbooks win a higher percentage of bettors’ money on NFL bets than in any other sport. This is the reason why so many serious sports gamblers turn to the college ranks to make their money.
College football provides an opportunity to bet on a wide range of games, meaning bettors have way more options when it comes to pulling the trigger on a particular play. It also means that you can be much more selective in finding the ideal conditions you’re looking for in a bet.
Because of all these options, bettors have created an endless number of strategies and systems that they’ve found success with over the years. In this article, I’ll dive into a few that you can add to your playbook to help add a few extra dollars to your bankroll come season’s end.
1 – Over Heat
It goes without saying, or at least it should, that checking the weather before betting on a game is something you should do. With that being said, knowing the weather report doesn’t do much good unless you know how to use the information effectively.
It’s true that wind, rain, and any other precipitation have a major impact on the game, but I believe temperature can be even more valuable.
When you’re going through your list of potential games to bet on, see if you can locate a few where the temperatures are going to be in the high 80s, 90s, or beyond and strongly consider betting the over.
As the season progresses, the weather cools down for most of the country, so focus on leagues like Pac-12 or Big 12 to find games with high temperatures. These leagues have a history of high-scoring offenses. Although bookmakers take this into account, you can still have major success betting the over.
2 – Road Warriors
Sports gamblers, especially amateur sports gamblers, have their biases. One major bias is towards the favorite, even when accounting for the spread. Some college football books report up to 60% to 70% (and even higher) of the total number of bets placed on the favorite against the spread.
Another bias that gamblers tend to have is overvaluing the home team. Although playing at home is unquestionably advantageous, it isn’t nearly as big of a factor as the general public thinks it is.
Becoming successful betting on underdogs is all about knowing the best circumstances to make your pick. One of the best times to board the underdog train is when you can find one who is getting just a few points on the road.
You might think that it’s better to choose an underdog receiving a lot of points, but this theory is unpredictable and often involves teams that have a huge talent disparity.
College Football Betting Tips Week 8
When you factor in the “playing on the road,” oddsmakers use the public’s bias to their advantage. For example, Team A could be travelling to take on Team B. Team A is the better team, but because they’re on the road the sportsbooks put out a spread of Team A +4 points. They do this because they know the public will incorrectly take the home favorite.
Simply put, there’s no better time to choose an underdog than when they’re on the road and getting less than seven points.
3 – Bet on the Sleepers
Beating the online sportsbooks is extremely difficult in the NFL, and the same can be said about big time college football. It makes sense; the games that receive the most action are always going to be the most valuable for the sportsbooks.
You might be surprised to learn that the group of the top five teams against the spread from 2013 to 2019 doesn’t include Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, or any of the traditional powers. Instead, the schools with the best (at or around 60%) record against the spread are Temple, Navy, Duke, Colorado State, and Marshall.
That’s right, these overlooked teams have returned more money for bettors than any of the traditional top teams in the country. Because these teams typically receive very little action on their games, sportsbooks haven’t made them a huge focus. This has left the door open for gamblers to take advantage.
The same can be said for many of the NCAA’s non-power five teams. You can make money off these smaller programs by focusing on a handful of teams from smaller conferences. Get to know these teams and you’ll begin to find holes in the odds that can pay off big.
4 – Bet on Rest at Home
The college football season is a grind, and important players on every team get banged up each week. Getting a week off is crucial not only because it gives coaches an extra week to scheme, but it also provides an opportunity for a team to get healthy.
Typically, there aren’t many circumstances in which it’s advisable to take a favorite. With that said, following a bye week, college football teams that are a home favorite have a tendency to cover at a rate not usually seen with favorites in other situations.
Games that are played in hot temperatures tend to be dominated by the offense. The reasoning is that defenses tend to get worn out during the course of a game and heat exacerbates this phenomenon significantly.
The data would suggest that taking a good team coming off a bye is one of the best bets if you’re looking to put spot the rare undervalued favorite.
5 – Counterintuitive Wins
If you frequently bet on sports, you’ll recognize that occasionally, there are lines that just don’t make sense. These are the games where sportsbooks maximize their winnings. The good news? If you know how to spot these games, you can also generate a nice profit.
One of the tried-and-true philosophies for college football sharps suggests that one of the best bets you can make is an unranked opponent that is a favorite playing against a ranked opponent.
Remember that rankings aren’t necessarily a reflection of how good a team really is, but more so a reflection of their performance, strength of schedule, etc. Sportsbooks know that bettors automatically see ranked vs. unranked and assume that the ranked team is always better. When amateur gamblers see a ranked team that is actually getting points against an unranked team, they usually can’t resist.
In all cases, you want to think like the sportsbook. If you see something that feels like a trap, you might be onto something. Align yourself with the oddsmakers and you can also take advantage of the uninformed betting public.
Conclusion
College football is an American tradition that is celebrated every fall due to the passion, pageantry, and connection to one’s alma mater. This sacred time of year can also create a nice boost to your bankroll if you’re able to recognize the systems that work. Do some experimentation of your own and find which strategies work for you, and ride them all season long.